The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader has put the country’s institutional resilience to its ultimate test. Despite the shock of the joint US-Israeli airstrikes, the military and security institutions have remained intact. This “institutional continuity” is a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic’s strategy to survive the loss of its most powerful figure.
In Tehran and other major cities, the presence of armed police and paramilitaries is a clear sign of the state’s determination to maintain order. The government is acutely aware of the “widespread disillusionment” among its citizens, a sentiment that was recently highlighted by a journalist’s slip of the tongue on live television. The security forces are there to ensure that this disillusionment does not turn into organized resistance.
The constitutional process for selecting a successor is now underway. An interim council is currently managing the state’s affairs, while the Assembly of Experts begins its secret deliberations. This process is designed to ensure a smooth transition of power, but the high stakes of the current conflict make it more complex and uncertain than ever before.
Mojtaba Khamenei is often mentioned as a potential successor, but his candidacy is far from guaranteed. His rise to power would be a significant departure from the republic’s founding principles. The IRGC, which is expected to gain more political power in the aftermath of the leader’s death, will be a key factor in the final decision.
The international community is also closely monitoring Iran’s nuclear policy. The late leader’s religious ban on nuclear weapons was a key part of his legacy. If a more hardline successor is chosen—especially one with strong ties to the IRGC—the religious barriers to weaponization could be re-evaluated, leading to a new level of regional tension.